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Консультация № 200166
26.01.2021, 13:29
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На ферме живут 6 белых кроликов, у которых вероятность
заразиться равна
заразиться равна
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Обсуждение
28.01.2021, 13:09
общий
это ответ
Здравствуйте, 3_24_04!
Всего кроликов 6 + 5 + 7 = 18.
Вероятности, что кролик окажется белый, черный или серый, равны, соответственно
P(W)= 6/18, P(B) = 5/18, P(G) = 7/18. По словию, вероятности заразиться
для каждой из окрасок P(X|W)=1/7, P(X|B)=1/9, P(X|G)=3/19.
По формуде Байеса, вероятность того, что заразившийся кролик окажется серым, равна
P(G|X) = P(X|G)*P(G)/(P(X|W)*P(W) + P(X|B)*P(B) + P(X|G)*P(G)).
Подставляя численные значения, после сокращения на общее число кроликов 18, получим:
P(G|X) = (21/19)/(6/7+5/9+21/19) = 1323/3014, приблизительно 0.439.
Всего кроликов 6 + 5 + 7 = 18.
Вероятности, что кролик окажется белый, черный или серый, равны, соответственно
P(W)= 6/18, P(B) = 5/18, P(G) = 7/18. По словию, вероятности заразиться
для каждой из окрасок P(X|W)=1/7, P(X|B)=1/9, P(X|G)=3/19.
По формуде Байеса, вероятность того, что заразившийся кролик окажется серым, равна
P(G|X) = P(X|G)*P(G)/(P(X|W)*P(W) + P(X|B)*P(B) + P(X|G)*P(G)).
Подставляя численные значения, после сокращения на общее число кроликов 18, получим:
P(G|X) = (21/19)/(6/7+5/9+21/19) = 1323/3014, приблизительно 0.439.
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