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Консультация № 203225
07.10.2022, 22:58
0.00 руб.
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6
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Уважаемые эксперты! Пожалуйста, ответьте на вопрос:
Студент знает 26 билетов из 34. В каком случае вероятность вытащить счастливый билет для него больше, если он идёт сдавать экзамен первым или если – вторым?
Студент знает 26 билетов из 34. В каком случае вероятность вытащить счастливый билет для него больше, если он идёт сдавать экзамен первым или если – вторым?
Обсуждение
09.10.2022, 06:48
общий
09.10.2022, 21:20
это ответ
Здравствуйте, svrvsvrv!
Если студент идёт сдавать экзамен первым, то для него вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет (событие
) составляет 
Если студент идёт сдавать экзамен вторым, то для него вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет зависит от того, какой билет вытащил студент, который сдавал экзамен первым:
- если студент, который сдавал экзамен первым, вытащил "счастливый" билет (гипотеза
вероятность которой 
), то вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет для второго студента составляет 
- если студент, который сдавал экзамен первым, не вытащил "счастливый" билет (гипотеза
для которой 
), то 
Следовательно,
При этом
Если студент идёт сдавать экзамен первым, то для него вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет (событие
) составляет Если студент идёт сдавать экзамен вторым, то для него вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет зависит от того, какой билет вытащил студент, который сдавал экзамен первым:
- если студент, который сдавал экзамен первым, вытащил "счастливый" билет (гипотеза
вероятность которой ), то вероятность вытащить "счастливый" билет для второго студента составляет - если студент, который сдавал экзамен первым, не вытащил "счастливый" билет (гипотеза
для которой ), то Следовательно,
При этом
5
Благодарю за ответ!
Об авторе:
Facta loquuntur.
Facta loquuntur.
09.10.2022, 12:24
общий
Адресаты:
Андрей Владимирович, здравствуйте!
Моё решение совпадает с Вашим. Есть лишь одно отличие: я не сокращал дроби 26/34 и 8/34. В связи с этим у меня получилось, что вероятности в первом и во втором случаях равны.
Моё решение совпадает с Вашим. Есть лишь одно отличие: я не сокращал дроби 26/34 и 8/34. В связи с этим у меня получилось, что вероятности в первом и во втором случаях равны.
09.10.2022, 12:28
общий
Адресаты:
Может быть, я ошибся в расчёте? Результат должен быть один и тот же, независимо от сокращения дробей.
Об авторе:
Facta loquuntur.
Facta loquuntur.
09.10.2022, 19:56
общий
Адресаты:
Да, я пересчитал и нашёл: в знаменателе должно быть 561. Тогда всё будет сходиться.
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