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Консультация № 184508
20.11.2011, 12:52
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Уважаемые эксперты! Пожалуйста, ответьте на вопрос:
Вероятность выиграть, играя в рулетку, 1/37. Сделав ставку 100 раз, мы ни разу не выиграли. Заподозрив, что игра ведется не честно, мы решили проверить свою гипотезу, построив 95%-ый доверительный интервал для вероятности выигрыша. По какой формуле строится интервал и что дала проверке в нашем случае? заранее спасибо
Вероятность выиграть, играя в рулетку, 1/37. Сделав ставку 100 раз, мы ни разу не выиграли. Заподозрив, что игра ведется не честно, мы решили проверить свою гипотезу, построив 95%-ый доверительный интервал для вероятности выигрыша. По какой формуле строится интервал и что дала проверке в нашем случае? заранее спасибо
Обсуждение
20.11.2011, 14:17
общий
это ответ
Здравствуйте, КирилЛ!
Доверительный интервал для схемы Бернулли имеет смысл рассчитывать, если б у Вас был хотя бы один выигрыш. Иначе формула даст 0. Например, для одного выигрыша из 100:
Вероятностный интервал для схемы Бернулли:
p - отношение числа выигрышей к числу попыток - в Вашем случае 1/100=0,01.
t определяется из равенства 2Ф(t)=gamma -> Ф(t)=0,95/2=0,475.
Из таблицы находим t=1,96
Итак,
1/37=0,027 попадает в этот интервал, и в случае одного выигрыша из 100 Ваша гипотеза неверна.
Доверительный интервал для схемы Бернулли имеет смысл рассчитывать, если б у Вас был хотя бы один выигрыш. Иначе формула даст 0. Например, для одного выигрыша из 100:
Вероятностный интервал для схемы Бернулли:
p - отношение числа выигрышей к числу попыток - в Вашем случае 1/100=0,01.
t определяется из равенства 2Ф(t)=gamma -> Ф(t)=0,95/2=0,475.
Из таблицы находим t=1,96
Итак,
1/37=0,027 попадает в этот интервал, и в случае одного выигрыша из 100 Ваша гипотеза неверна.
Неизвестный
21.11.2011, 19:15
общий
Спасибо)но все же как мне быть?просто это задание в контрольной работе и согласитесь я же не буду писать то, что доверительный интервал для схемы Бернулли имеет смысл рассчитывать, если б у Вас был хотя бы один выигрыш.Просто работу надо сдать и преподавателю не понравиться что я ей подобное напишу.
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