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Консультация № 197927
05.03.2020, 16:03
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Здравствуйте! У меня возникли сложности с задачей по терверу 
. Заранее благодарю за помощь 
Первый рабочий делает за смену 40 деталей, второй - 45 деталей, третий - 50 деталей. Вероятности получения брака для них соответственно равны 0,03: 0,05 и 0,02. Из общей выработки взята деталь, которая оказалась бракованной. Найти вероятность того, что она сделана третьим рабочим.
. Заранее благодарю за помощь Первый рабочий делает за смену 40 деталей, второй - 45 деталей, третий - 50 деталей. Вероятности получения брака для них соответственно равны 0,03: 0,05 и 0,02. Из общей выработки взята деталь, которая оказалась бракованной. Найти вероятность того, что она сделана третьим рабочим.
Обсуждение
24.06.2022, 16:49
общий
24.06.2022, 22:55
это ответ
Здравствуйте, lSemperFi!
Привожу своё решение задачи для возможных посетителей портала.
Пусть событие
состоит в том, что выбранная деталь оказалась бракованной. Сформулируем следующие гипотезы:
1)
-- выбранная деталь сделана первым рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет 
При этом вероятность события равна 
2)
-- выбранная деталь сделана вторым рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет 
При этом вероятность события равна 
3)
-- выбранная деталь сделана третьим рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет 
При этом вероятность события равна 
Вычислим полную вероятность события
Искомая вероятность -- вероятность того, что бракованная деталь сделана третьим рабочим, -- составляет (согласно формуле Байеса)
Привожу своё решение задачи для возможных посетителей портала.
Пусть событие
состоит в том, что выбранная деталь оказалась бракованной. Сформулируем следующие гипотезы:1)
-- выбранная деталь сделана первым рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет При этом вероятность события равна 2)
-- выбранная деталь сделана вторым рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет При этом вероятность события равна 3)
-- выбранная деталь сделана третьим рабочим. Вероятность этого составляет При этом вероятность события равна Вычислим полную вероятность события
Искомая вероятность -- вероятность того, что бракованная деталь сделана третьим рабочим, -- составляет (согласно формуле Байеса)
Об авторе:
Facta loquuntur.
Facta loquuntur.
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