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Консультация № 179834
01.09.2010, 17:16
0.00 руб.
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1
Дорогие эксперты помогите пожалуйста решить задачу по теории вероятности:
Предприятие, производящее компьютеры, получает одинаковые ЧИПы от двух поставщиков. Первый поставляет 65% ЧИПов, второй — 35%. Известно, что качество поставляемых ЧИПов разное (у первого поставщики 2% брака, у второ-го — 5% брака). Предприятие осуществляет гарантийный ремонт компьютеров. Имея данные о числе компьютеров, поступающих на гарантийный ремонт в связи с неисправностью ЧИПов, переоцените вероятность того, что возвращенный для ремонта компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом от первого поставщика.
Предприятие, производящее компьютеры, получает одинаковые ЧИПы от двух поставщиков. Первый поставляет 65% ЧИПов, второй — 35%. Известно, что качество поставляемых ЧИПов разное (у первого поставщики 2% брака, у второ-го — 5% брака). Предприятие осуществляет гарантийный ремонт компьютеров. Имея данные о числе компьютеров, поступающих на гарантийный ремонт в связи с неисправностью ЧИПов, переоцените вероятность того, что возвращенный для ремонта компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом от первого поставщика.
Обсуждение
Неизвестный
01.09.2010, 19:19
общий
это ответ
Здравствуйте, Никитинская Ольга Владимировна.
Задача на формулу Байеса.
H1 - гипотеза 1 - в том, что бракованный компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом 1-го поставщика P(H1)= 0,65
H1 - гипотеза 2 - в том, что бракованный компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом 2-го поставщика P(H2)= 0,35
Проверка полной группы событий: 0,65 + 0,35 = 1
Условные вероятности (условная вероятность бракованного компьютера при укомплектованности от i-го поставщика) по условию
р(А/Н1)=0,02, р(А/Н2)=0,05
По формуле полной вероятности вероятность того, компьютер бракованный
P(A)=P(H1)P(A/H1) + P(H2)P(A/H2) = 0,65*0,02 + 0,35*0,05 = 0,0305
Вероятность того, что возвращенный для ремонта компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом от первого по-ставщика:
P(H1/A) = P(H1)P(A/H1)/ P(A) = 0,65*0,02 /0,0305= 0,4262
Задача на формулу Байеса.
H1 - гипотеза 1 - в том, что бракованный компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом 1-го поставщика P(H1)= 0,65
H1 - гипотеза 2 - в том, что бракованный компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом 2-го поставщика P(H2)= 0,35
Проверка полной группы событий: 0,65 + 0,35 = 1
Условные вероятности (условная вероятность бракованного компьютера при укомплектованности от i-го поставщика) по условию
р(А/Н1)=0,02, р(А/Н2)=0,05
По формуле полной вероятности вероятность того, компьютер бракованный
P(A)=P(H1)P(A/H1) + P(H2)P(A/H2) = 0,65*0,02 + 0,35*0,05 = 0,0305
Вероятность того, что возвращенный для ремонта компьютер укомплектован ЧИПом от первого по-ставщика:
P(H1/A) = P(H1)P(A/H1)/ P(A) = 0,65*0,02 /0,0305= 0,4262
5
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