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Консультация № 175117
10.12.2009, 22:31
35.00 руб.
0
2
2
Добрый вечер! Есть зад. по теор вероятности
На склад поступает 60% продукции с первого участка и 40% со второго, причем с 1го - 80% изделий 1го сорта, а со второго 75% изд первого сорта. Какова вероятность того, что наудачу взятое изделие изготовлено на втором участке, если оно первого сорта
На склад поступает 60% продукции с первого участка и 40% со второго, причем с 1го - 80% изделий 1го сорта, а со второго 75% изд первого сорта. Какова вероятность того, что наудачу взятое изделие изготовлено на втором участке, если оно первого сорта
Обсуждение
Неизвестный
11.12.2009, 19:18
общий
это ответ
Здравствуйте, Сласти.
На склад поступает 3/5 продукции с первого участка и 2/5 - со второго. При этом изделий первого сорта 4/5 с первого участка и 3/4 со второго. Поэтому на складе:
а) изделий первого сорта с первого участка - 3/5*4/5=12/25
б) изделий первого сорта со второго участка - 2/5*3/4=3/10
в) изделий второго сорта с первого участка - 3/5*1/5=3/25
г) изделий второго сорта со второго участка - 2/5*1/4=1/10
Рассмотрим теперь количество изделий первого сорта - 12/25+3/10=39/50.
Теперь считаем вероятность для второго участка: 3/10 : 39/50 = (3*50)/(10*39)=15/39 или примерно 0,38.
Это и есть ответ.
Удачи!
На склад поступает 3/5 продукции с первого участка и 2/5 - со второго. При этом изделий первого сорта 4/5 с первого участка и 3/4 со второго. Поэтому на складе:
а) изделий первого сорта с первого участка - 3/5*4/5=12/25
б) изделий первого сорта со второго участка - 2/5*3/4=3/10
в) изделий второго сорта с первого участка - 3/5*1/5=3/25
г) изделий второго сорта со второго участка - 2/5*1/4=1/10
Рассмотрим теперь количество изделий первого сорта - 12/25+3/10=39/50.
Теперь считаем вероятность для второго участка: 3/10 : 39/50 = (3*50)/(10*39)=15/39 или примерно 0,38.
Это и есть ответ.
Удачи!
5
Неизвестный
11.12.2009, 19:27
общий
это ответ
Здравствуйте, Сласти.
Событие A: деталь поступила с 1-го участка;
событие B: деталь поступила со 2-го участка;
событие C: поступившая деталь 1-го сорта;
По формуле Бейеса
P(B/C)=P(B)*P(C/B)/(P(A)*P(C/A)+P(B)*P(C/B))
По условию задачи
P(B)=0.4
P(C/B)=0.75
P(A)=0.6
P(C/A)=0.8
Поэтому
P(B/C)=0.385
Ответ: 0.385.
Событие A: деталь поступила с 1-го участка;
событие B: деталь поступила со 2-го участка;
событие C: поступившая деталь 1-го сорта;
По формуле Бейеса
P(B/C)=P(B)*P(C/B)/(P(A)*P(C/A)+P(B)*P(C/B))
По условию задачи
P(B)=0.4
P(C/B)=0.75
P(A)=0.6
P(C/A)=0.8
Поэтому
P(B/C)=0.385
Ответ: 0.385.
Форма ответа
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